Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Tuesday night pulled off one of the biggest upsets in modern electoral history, claiming victory in the Michigan Democratic Primary after polls showed him trailing by double-digits heading into the contest.
With 99 percent of the vote counted in the Wolverine State, Sanders bested the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 50 to 48 percent. He collected the lion’s share of the 130 delegates up for grabs in the primary.
Ahead of voting, data showed Clinton with a commanding lead over Sanders. Preeminent polling website FiveThirtyEight showed Clinton winning by more than twenty points. The site gave her a 99 percent chance of victory.
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver described Sanders win on Tuesday night as “among the greatest polling errors in primary history.”
Sanders’ success in Michigan could be chalked up to a number of different factors. His message against liberalized trade appeared to resonate with voters in contrast to Clinton’s record of supporting free trade agreements like NAFTA and the Trans Pacific Partnership (before she changed her mind and opposed it last year).
According to CNN exit polls, Sanders also made inroads with minority voters, losing the black vote 65 to 31 percent, a marked improvement from the blowout margins he has been losing by in the south. Conversely, he beat Clinton 57 to 41 percent among white voters, and also won the support of two-thirds of voters under age 44.
“I am grateful to the people of Michigan for defying the pundits and pollsters and giving us their support,” Sanders said in a hastily called press conference Tuesday night once he realized he was faring better than anyone expected in the state–including, evidently, himself.
“This is a critically important night. We came from 30 points down in Michigan and we’re seeing the same kind of come-from-behind momentum all across America,” the insurgent candidate added.
It wasn’t all good news for Sanders, however. He got trounced in the other Democratic contest that night. In Mississippi, Clinton won 83-17 percent. As a result of the blowout win, Clinton actually nabbed more pledged delegates in total on Tuesday night than Sanders. She holds a sizable delegate lead of 760 to 546. It takes 2,383 to clinch the nomination.
Although his shot at winning the nomination remains long, Sanders is dealing with a more favorable map moving forward, toward states similar to Michigan, including Ohio and Illinois.
On the Republican side, businessman Donald Trump continued his march to the GOP nomination, securing big wins in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won the only other Republican contest of the night in Idaho.
Democrats are now looking ahead to the slate of primaries on March 15, which include Florida, Illinois, and Missouri where more than 440 delegates will be at stake.
