The “Throw the bums out” anti-incumbent mentality that swept the nation over the last few elections is paying dividends, according to recently released data. However, trends still point to elected lawmakers eventually succumbing to careerism.
The average number of years lawmakers have served on Capitol Hill hold has dropped precipitously in the last decade, bottoming out at levels not seen this century.
Representatives in the 114th Congress have already served, on average, 8.8 years, which is nearly a full-term less than their counterparts had in the 110th Congress (2007-2008).
Today’s Senators, who on average have served 9.7 years, have a half-term, or three years, less experience than their counterparts eight years ago.
Those numbers come courtesy of a report compiled by the Congressional Research Service, which was made public thanks to a Freedom of Information Act request by the Federation of American Scientists.
Gallup has tracked anti-incumbency sentiment among Americans for decades, logging growing dissatisfaction. Ahead of midterm elections in 2006, 50% of Americans believed most lawmakers didn’t deserve re-election. That number had increased to 70% when Gallup polled again in April 2014.
But history proves that downward trends in tenure are always followed by years of more entrenchment on Capitol Hill. Over time, going back to the end of 18th century, the average lawmaker has served in Congress for increasingly longer periods of time.
In the 50th Congress, in 1887, the average Representative had fewer than three years of experience; a Senator had slightly more than four years. Those numbers have more than doubled since.
This latest slide in experience corresponds with historical increases in money in politics following the 2010 Citizens United decision.
Wealthy political donors like the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson have become household names in the last few years by funneling hundreds of millions of dollars into political campaigns aimed mostly at knocking off Democratic incumbents who briefly held a majority in both chambers of Congress following the election of Barack Obama.
The upstart politicians who benefited from political elite’s generosity are incumbents now, which suggest that flows of money going toward anti-incumbency in future elections may wane.
