The District Sentinel Discontent Index dropped by over two points around the turn of the year.
The measurement fell to 99.17 in December 2015, and then to 98.04 in January 2016. It was at 100.26 in November 2015, the last month for which a reading was released.
The movement over the two months was driven by broad improvements in the economy, reflected in each of the index’s subcomponents. Labor Discontent was down by 0.89 points, Consumer Discontent dropped by 0.72 points, and Housing Discontent fell by 0.62 points.
Labor markets improved, as evidenced by lower unemployment, higher labor participation, and fewer strikes. In January, the unemployment rate fell below 5 percent for the first time since February 2008, while more Americans simultaneously entered the workforce.
Consumer and Housing Discontent were down on the back of higher earnings. In December 2015, average non-supervisory earnings jumped by over three dollars. Consumer Discontent was also up on lower transportation costs and higher consumer confidence, and the Housing Discontent was up on lower delinquency rates for FHA-backed mortgages.
Between its January 2004 baseline (DI=99.9, all three sub-indexes=33.3) and its public launch in late 2014, the Discontent Index peaked at 144.34 in Aug. 2011–one month before the Occupy Wall Street movement started. Its record low was 87.64 in Dec. 2006–when unemployment reached a post-tech bubble trough of 4.4 percent.
Find out more about the Discontent Index and its components and inputs here.
