No one in the liberal punditry class wants to read it, but a giant invisible elephant will be waving a sign as President Obama delivers his State of the Union address on Tuesday night.
It’s going to say: “None of this will happen.”
In the weeks leading up to the annual speech, the administration has unveiled a series of progressive proposals that have reignited the Democratic base and buoyed the President’s approval ratings, only two-and-a-half months after Republicans bullied their adversaries in midterm elections.
From free community college to support for municipal broadband to taxing the rich, the administration is inspiring lefties who have, over the past six years, felt that the President might be on the verge of proposing a progressive manifesto, only to have those hopes dashed quickly by yet another austerity compromise or deferential nod to Wall Street.
Although these new proposals have his supporters jubilant and forgetful of past transgressions; his naysayers, who now control the US Congress, consider them non-starters. They have less of a chance of becoming law than a bill to rename a post office in Alabama after Che Guevara.
Perhaps six years ago, when Democrats controlled the White House, the House, and the Senate, a broad progressive agenda would have had a better chance of being enacted into law. Unfortunately back then, too much political capital was used, and too many deals were cut with insurance and pharmaceutical companies, to pass a health reform law that ultimately preserves a failing for-profit system most American oppose.
But instead, the White House offers the proposals now, in the twilight of Obama’s presidency–when they have no chance of passing. Congress has already spilled the guts of those previewed. In reiterating them, The President will sound more like he’s listing eventual failures rather than a shorter-term legislative agenda.
In fact, a lot of what the President will say Tuesday will be tinged with failure.
The focus of the foreign policy front: the fight against the Islamic State is achieving minimal gains and even losing ground in some places.
The White House is quietly backing away from demands in Syria that President Assad step down. The policy, critics have alleged, only worked to sabotage any sort of realistic political solution to the civil war.
Despite that, as The Sentinel noted last week, President Obama is moving forward on a train and equip program that smacks of “mission creep”–one expected to dump thousands more trained rebels onto the battlefield and extend the bloody conflict by three years.
When it comes to climate change, the President is expected to introduce new regulations on methane emissions to curb increasing releases of the potent greenhouse gas associated with increased fracking. But the President still has yet to clarify his position on the pre-eminent climate debate gripping the country: the Keystone XL pipeline. Obama has been reluctant to make a robust environmental case against the project, and instead deferred to his State Department, which will release its final recommendation on the pipeline in the coming weeks or months.
Another topic on the agenda tonight is cyber-security. Following the Sony hack last December, the President is expected to reengage Congress on cyber security legislation that has spooked privacy advocates over its public-private data sharing provisions. Even more concerning are recent comments made by the administration that suggest it could be getting behind anti-encryption efforts spearheaded by the UK Prime Minister David Cameron.
When it comes down to it, the next two years are likely to look a lot more similar to the last two months, where a bitter fight over a spending bill known the “cromnibus” led to the President signing legislation that deregulated derivatives markets on Wall Street.
On Tuesday night, the President will likely present his most progressive vision for the country, which is not something to be completely dismissed. Recent executive action on immigration and Cuba are noteworthy as well, and represent some of the boldest steps of his presidency.
But it’s only in the face of futility that the President has found his progressivism—a reality that will make tonight amount to a series of empty promises, standing ovations, and one giant elephant controlling two houses of Congress.
