Key Afghan institutions became less competent throughout this year, a US government watchdog warned on Thursday.
Afghan National Defense and Security Forces are “less capable than last quarter,” the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction noted in a regular report. It also remarked that The Pentagon has downgraded its outlook on the expected capabilities of the Afghan Ministries of Interior and Defense by the end of next year.
The assessment has come not long after prominent American military officials suggested that President Obama will strongly consider altering or jettisoning his withdrawal timetable.
“I’ve been talking with John Campbell, Gen. Campbell, the commander of the force in Afghanistan,” said Gen. Mark Milley last week, at a Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing. “It’s my understanding that the plan is continually under review and that we will execute based on conditions on the ground,” he added.
Milley was picked by Obama to succeed Gen. Ray Ordierno as the next Army Chief of Staff.
The White House’s plan currently calls for the extrication of all US forces outside of Kabul by the end of 2016.
Heaping pressure on those in favor of the timetable has been the consolidation of the Islamic State’s power in Iraq and Syria.
Earlier this month, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani offered American officials the use of his country as a regional anti-ISIL base. A scattering of militants in Afghanistan that have declared allegiance to the self-described caliphate have also given US officials pause—or at least reason to oppose further withdrawals.
“DOD officials acknowledged that the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant had spread into Afghanistan, although they added that the group was ‘nascent and relatively small,’” SIGAR noted, adding that the Taliban itself has vociferously opposed ISIL.
Also causing headaches within the pro-withdrawal camp is the fact that Afghan security forces have taken heavy casualties fighting the Taliban this year and last. In November 2014, a top US commander called the rate of combat fatalities and injuries suffered by Afghan soldiers last year and the year before as “unsustainable.”
It is not clear yet if Afghan military casualties this year are expected to surpass the “unsustainable” rate of the past two, but the issue will likely remain at the forefront of policymakers’ concerns.
“The ANDSF has experienced higher casualty rates since the Taliban’s spring offensive began; May 2015 casualties were 33% higher than in the previous month,” the inspector general noted.
Read the full quarterly SIGAR report here.
