The District Sentinel Discontent Index started 2015 at its lowest level since the global financial meltdown in 2008.
The gauge of macroeconomic discord dropped by 1.37 in January to 105.65, from 107.02 in December 2014, as prices fell and consumers’ moods improved.
The decline was fueled entirely by a drop in Consumer Discontent, from 32.74 to 31.36—movement caused by lower transportation cost inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and a 10.7 point upturn in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.
Labor Discontent was up slightly, as a slight 0.1 percent increase in labor market participation was matched by a rise in unemployment and underemployment, to 5.7 and 11.3 percent.
January also saw only a small increase in “Major work stoppages” as measured by BLS, with 5,200 walking out on the job. The ranks participating in industrial actions would have been far smaller, too, if not for the 3,200 California healthcare workers who staged a five day strike against Kaiser Permanente.
Housing Discontent fell slightly, to 44.35 from 44.73, as the rate of seriously delinquent FHA-backed mortgages dropped for the fifth month in a row, to 6.5 percent—down from 6.64 percent in December and 7.28 percent in August.
The last time the overall Discontent Index fell below 105 was in May 2008, as the global financial system hurled toward a state of complete disrepair.
Between its January 2004 baseline (DI=99.9, all three sub-indexes=33.3) and its public launch in late 2014, the Discontent Index peaked at 144.35 in Aug. 2011 – one month before the Occupy Wall Street movement started. Its record low was 87.65 in Dec. 2006 – when unemployment reached a post-tech bubble recession trough of 4.4 percent.
Find out more about the Discontent Index and its components and inputs here.
