The District Sentinel Discontent Index dropped by almost half of a point in August, falling for the fourth consecutive month to another post-2008 low.
The measure was down to 102.52 from 102.05 in July. Downward movement by the Consumer Discontent component mostly drove the decline.
Housing Discontent rose slightly by 0.47 points to 43.47, as the percentage of seriously delinquent FHA-backed mortgages increased to 6.2 after an unusual decline, from 6.42 to 6.0, in July.
Labor Discontent, which was down by 0.11 points to 26.84, would have been lower but for two major work stoppages. Allegheny Technologies locked out 2,200 workers in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, and 1,100 Consolidated Nuclear Security employees went on strike in Amarillo, Texas. Both labor disputes continued into September.
Consumer Discontent, which fell to 31.74 from 32.57, was kept low by high consumer confidence, and another month of low transportation costs relative to non-supervisory workers’ incomes.
The last time the Discontent Index fell below 102 points was in April 2008, in the run-up to the Wall Street-caused global financial crisis. Then, labor and housing discontent were lower than they were in August 2015, by about 3 and 2.5 points, respectively.
Between its January 2004 baseline (DI=99.9, all three sub-indexes=33.3) and its public launch in late 2014, the Discontent Index peaked at 144.35 in Aug. 2011 – one month before the Occupy Wall Street movement started. Its record low was 87.65 in Dec. 2006 – when unemployment reached a post-tech bubble trough of 4.4 percent.
Find out more about the Discontent Index and its components and inputs here.
