Bolstering claims of an accelerating economic recovery, The District Sentinel Discontent Index fell by over two points in October, to 108.9 from 110.98. It also fell on a year-over-year basis by 12.98 points, down from 121.88 in October 2013.
All three components dropped in October 2014, suggesting that economic improvement is somewhat broad.
Labor Discontent fell to 30.19 from 30.74, despite an increase in significant strike activity. Communications workers in Maine, New Hampshire in Vermont joined teachers in Waukegan, Ill to bring the number of employees in “major work stoppages” documented by Bureau of Labor Statistics in October up to 4,200. The strike actions were washed out in the gauge by decreasing unemployment and underemployment, and a rising employment-to-population ratio.
Consumer Discontent fell to 33.37, down from 34.16 in September. Driving this was a decrease in the consumer price index for transportation and an increase in average weekly non-supervisory wages—both measured by BLS. An increase in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index also drove down The Sentinel’s measurement of American consumers’ disquiet.
Housing Discontent, which similarly takes into account non-supervisory wages, fell to 45.3 from 46.08 in September. A drop in rate of seriously delinquent FHA-backed mortgages, to 6.91 from 7.15, helped bring the measurement down.
Revisions in data brought September’s Housing Discontent measurement down 0.1 points to 46.08 from an initial reading of 46.18. The Discontent Index in September was subsequently revised down to 110.98 from 111.08.
Between its January 2004 baseline (DI=99.9, all three sub-indexes=33.3) and its public launch in late 2014, the Discontent Index peaked at 144.35 in Aug. 2011 – one month before the Occupy Wall Street movement started. Its record low was 87.65 in Dec. 2006 – when unemployment reached a post-tech bubble recession low of 4.4 percent.
